Tuesday 21 April 2015

Is Botanique at Bartley a Steal?

The Bartley area is in the Northeast of Singapore. It is not a residential area for now. In fact, there are plenty of dis-amenities which Singaporeans have complained about in the papers. The Mount Vernon Columbarium is nearby. There is an army camp – Gurkha Cantonment and a boys’ home in the vicinity. The Paya Lebar industrial estate is across the road. Amenities are limited. There will be some retail units in the uncompleted Kensington Square. Unfortunately there is no major shopping mall around. The nearest will be nex, at Serangoon. There are plans to rejuvenate the area with the development of the Bidadari estate next to Woodleigh MRT. The first BTO project in Bidadari will be offered in 2015. There will be an integrated transport hub as well.

Location of Bartley
Source: onemap

Uncompleted Projects in the Area
Bartley Residences launched in 2012 is a 702-unit condominium project. Residents of Bartley Residences can use the side gate to get to the Bartley MRT station which is less than 100 m away. The estimated TOP date is 2017.

The average transacted prices for a low-rise 797 sq ft unit is between $1,273 and $1,312 psf. The project is fully sold.

Transactions in Bartley Residences

Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Average Price
$1,277
$1,298
-
$1,287
$1,292
$1,312
$1,274
$1,273
$1,276
Average Size
797
797
-
797
797
797
797
797
797
* Levels 06 to 10
Source: URA / Real Property Advisory Singapore

Bartley Ridge launched in 2013 is a 868-unit condominium project. It is a short 5 minute walk to the Bartley MRT station. The estimated TOP date is 2018.

The average transacted prices for a low-rise 730 sq ft unit is between $1,253 and $1,310 psf. This is close to 10% higher than Bartley Residences’ average price, considering that the units are smaller. There is a noticeable trend that the average prices have eased from $1,310 psf to $1,253 psf. This could be due to individual units’ attributes. It is 97% sold as of March 2015.

Transactions in Bartley Ridge

Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Average Price
$1,310
$1,302
$1,272
$1,253
Average Size*
730
732
748
732
* Levels 06 to 10
Source: URA / Real Property Advisory Singapore

Botanique at Bartley launched in 2015 is a 797-unit condominium project. Located on the same side of the road as Bartley Residences, it is a short 5 minute walk to Bartley MRT station. The estimated TOP is 2019.

The prices indicated by the developer for a 2-bedder range from $798,000 to $1.05 million. The sizes are between 657 and 958 sq ft. Average price for the development is just below $1,300 psf. More than 150 units are said to be sold since launch.

Is it Worth Buying?
The developer paid around $648 psf ppr for the land in Jan 2014. This is slightly higher than Bartley Residences and significantly higher than Bartley Ridge. Factoring a construction cost of between $450 and $500 psf, the estimated breakeven price for Bartley Residences is between $1,100 and $1,150 psf. With a selling price of just below $1,300 psf, it appears that the developer is pricing Botanique at the same level as Bartley Residences and Bartley Ridge which was launched three and two years ago, respectively.

Prices Paid for Land Plots

Apr 2011
Jan 2012
Jan 2014
Bartley Residences
$621 psf ppr
-
-
Bartley Ridge
-
$495 psf ppr
-
Botanique at Bartley
-
-
$648 psf ppr
* Note: Bartley Residences and Bartley Ridge are by the same developers
Source: URA / Real Property Advisory Singapore

So it seems like the developer has factored in the market sentiments when pricing the project. But if you probe further, it may not be the case.

Just 300m north of Botanique at Bartley is a freehold development, Kensington Square. Launched in 2013, it commanded a slight premium over the leasehold Bartley Ridge despite located further away from the MRT station. All residential units in the development have been sold. If there are still units available in Kensington Square, this will no doubt affect the launch price of Botanique.

 Transactions in Kensington Square

Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Average Price
$1,520
$1,305
$1,537
$1,431
$1,451
$1,317
$1,339
$1,329
Average Size
657
678
673
629
614
642
638
653
Source: URA

In the future, there will be more residential projects in the area as the Government seeks to rejuvenate Bartley. There is another piece of land along Jalan Bunga Rampai in the Reserve List and another parcel of land zoned residential beside Maris Stella High School. The current land where SPCA sits on is zoned residential as well. Once sold and completed, they will compete with the earlier developments for tenants.


Source: onemap / URA / Real Property Advisory Singapore

Botanique at Bartley is priced fairly but it is not a steal. Proximity to a MRT station is always a plus point for investment so that is something for consideration as well.

Do note that the analysis have focused on 2-bedders which may include dual key units. If the development like Botanique at Bartley has studio units, these units will be strong competition against the 2-bedroom dual key units. The 2-bedroom dual key units owners should and must expect to achieve a lower rental than a studio unit if they do manage to find a tenant who do not mind a renting 200+ sq ft unit.

Pros and Cons of Botanique at Bartley
Pros
Cons
Near to Bartley MRT
No major shopping mall
Future integrated transport hub at Woodleigh
Near to but not beside a columbarium
Future amenities at Bidadari
Noise from two major roads – Bartley Road and Upper Paya Lebar Road
Expressways – KPE, CTE
Industrial estate nearby
Maris Stella High School
Competition for tenants from Bartley Residences, Bartley Ridge and itself
* The list of pros and cons are not exhaustive
Source: Real Property Advisory Singapore