HDB resale flat prices have fallen for nine consecutive quarters since 3Q 2013. However there are early signs that the HDB resale market is stabilising.
Firstly, the fall in the HDB resale price index is slower. From an average of 1.5% per quarter in 2014, this has slowed down to less than 1% on average each quarter in 2015.
Change in Price Index
|
|
3Q 2013
|
-0.90%
|
4Q 2013
|
-1.60%
|
1Q 2014
|
-1.60%
|
2Q 2014
|
-1.40%
|
3Q 2014
|
-1.70%
|
4Q 2014
|
-1.50%
|
1Q 2015
|
-1.0%
|
2Q 2015
|
-0.40%
|
3Q 2015
|
-0.30%
|
Secondly, the difference between the flash estimate and actual price fall has also narrowed. The flash estimate is based on a subset of the full quarter's data. In a falling market, the actual price fall is likely to be higher than the flash estimate. From a difference of 0.3% in 2013, it has narrowed to 0,2% in 2014. In 2015, there is in fact no difference between the flash estimate and actual price fall.
Source: HDB / Real Property Advisory
Lastly, the volume of resale flat transactions in each quarter has been increasing year-on-year. The analysis is carried out on a year to year basis because there are seasonal differences in the HDB resale market.
Source: HDB / Real Property Advisory
If this trend continues, it is possible that the HDB resale market will bottom out at the end of the year.
In the next post, we shall look at whether the increase in income ceiling for new HDB flats and Executive Condominiums (ECs) will throw a spanner in the works.
