Sunday, 20 August 2017

HDB vs Bank Loan

I have seen some people asking whether it is better to take a HDB loan or a bank loan for their HDB flat.

The key feature of a HDB loan is that the interest rate is fixed at 2.5% plus 0.1% or 2.6%. In the event that the CPF OA interest rate goes beyond 2.5%, the interest rate will increase. The disadvantage of taking a HDB loan is that you must wipe out your CPF OA.

For bank loan, interest rate fluctuates if you opt for a variable rate loan. A variable rate loan interest rate is lower compared to a fixed rate loan. You can check out bank loans which has rates tied to their fixed deposit rates. But do note that if you opt for a bank loan, the minimum amount is $100,000. For bank loan, you have the option of deciding the amount of CPF OA to use.

Assuming the difference between a HDB and bank interest rate is 1.0% and you are borrowing $100,000 for 15 years, the monthly difference between a HDB and bank loan is less than $50. Keeping the interest rate constant, every increase in $100,000 loan will double the monthly difference by around $47.


Loan Amount
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
Tenure (years)
15
15
15
15
HDB Loan Mortgage Payment
$672
$1,343
$2,015
$2,686
Bank Loan Mortgage Payment
$625
$1,251
$1,876
$2,501
Monthly Difference
$47
$92
$139
$185



I have done up an excel file. You can download it via the link. The cells highlighted in yellow can be change. The rest are locked.

Hope this helps.


HDB vs Bank Loan

Saturday, 18 February 2017

Investing in Strata Retail Units

When the Government tried to cool down the red hot demand in the residential segment a few years back, it resulted in a spillover of demand to the retail, office and even industrial sector. Some strata retail projects like Alexandra Central was sold out in a day.

Now the dust has settled and strata retail malls are completed, the question is where are the tenants?

Some of these malls are not even half full even a year after completion. The soft retail market is one reason. Lack of a coherent marketing strategy due to fragmented ownership is another. The other reason is due to small unit sizes.

In a bid to keep quantum affordable, developers have created spaces as small as 100 sq ft. Very rarely do they have units larger than 1,000 sq ft for sale. Not many individual investors have a few million dollars to spare.

These small spaces have resulted in a mismatch between demand and supply. In a retail mall managed by a developer, if a tenant needs a larger space, the developer can knock down the dividing wall to create a larger space. But in a strata mall, the tenant will have to deal with different owners to get the size he wants. Different owners will want different rents for their units. This is one reason why a strata mall seldom attract an anchor tenant due to the difficulty of getting a large unit.

Which trade can an investor target if he has a strata unit?

Based on my experience in marketing retail units, these are the possible trades. It is not exhaustive but it is a guide.


Size (sq ft)
Possible Trade
Examples
100 – 200
Money changer, barber, mani-pedi, bubble tea
K-Cuts, EC House, Koi, Gong Cha
201 – 500
Convenience shop, café, maid agency, bakery, salon, spa, education
Ya Kun, Toast Box, 7-11, Cheers
501 – 750
F&B, apparel, renovation
Starbucks, Coffee Bean, Café Bene
> 750
F&B
Various
 
The best bets for these strata units are likely to be services like barber, maid agency, education and renovation. But their ability to pay high rental is limited. Strata retail malls do not have high footfall unlike those managed by a developer or REIT. Hence trades with very thin profit margins may not be able to survive in a strata mall.

Do check around to verify the rents quoted by marketing agents. REITs are good sources of rental information as they will give indications of passing rents in their malls.

Good luck in securing a tenant for your unit!

Monday, 8 August 2016

Does Pokemon Go Benefit Retail Malls?

The craze is here! More than 100 million downloaded!

If you hadn't heard of it, you deserved to be poke (pun intended). It's POKEMON GO!

There have been talk of accidents happening (it's true) because of people not paying attention to their surroundings and also businesses using it to generate sales.


Most of the PokeStops and gyms are outdoor places like shopping malls, transport points like MRT stations and bus stations, playgrounds, schools, tourist attractions and even places of worship.

Does it really benefit businesses? Let's look at shopping malls since I noticed an increase in visitors to shopping malls today. The increase in visitors today could be due to a short school day and working day for some adults.

I have used the word "visitors" because I consider you as a shopper only if you spend money. Increased traffic at a shopping mall is inconsequential if there is no corresponding increase in sales. If people are using the shopping mall as a thoroughfare or to get Poke Balls, there is no increase in sales.

Visitors ~> Converted Shoppers ~> Increased Sales

How then can a shopping mall or retail shop or F&B outlet encourage you to spend? The answer is not so straightforward.

For a shopping mall, they can use "lure" to increase the attractiveness of the PokeStop. "Lure" will increase the spawn rate for Pokemon monsters thereby attracting more people to the PokeStop.

The downside is that people do not need to go into the shopping mall to catch the monsters. All they need is to be nearby. Mall operators will likely have to run Pokemon events inside the mall to attract people in. For example, work with the game developer Niantic to release a rare Pokemon monster in the mall.

Retail shops selling Pokemon items are already benefiting before the launch in Singapore. I noticed an increase in sales of such items. For other types of retailers, I do not see a need for them to run any type of Pokemon promotion. As long as people visiting the mall sees the promotion and are interested, they will buy. Therefore they can just continue business as usual.

F&B operators will experience a mixed bag of fortunes. When people are tired moving around or hungry, they will stop for a bite or drink, translating into more sales. But F&B operators want a high table turnover rate because it translates into higher sales. If the people sit around longer than usual, the F&B operators suffer. I have seen a whole table of people having meals and drinks while talking about Pokemon Go. They seem to be in another world, oblivious to people who are waiting for a seat or table.


Now, will transport operators benefit? Maybe not. If your moving speed is above 15km/h, you are not clocking steps to hatch an egg. If you are taking a train, a reduced catch rate and higher escape rate is observed. I have personally experienced that.



The bad side of Pokemon Go is that there are increased instances of people and even vehicles stopping suddenly to catch a monster.

The good side is that the malls have a higher probability of getting more visitors. But these people must be converted to shoppers in order to benefit from Pokemon Go. But isn't that what they are doing now? So is there a need to go beyond and above what they are doing?


On the other hand, I do see tourist attractions like the Singapore Zoo benefiting from Pokemon Go. Why?
1. Such attractions are usually big enough that the PokeStop is deep inside and people have to buy a ticket to reach the PokeStop.
2. Once people pay to enter, they are unlikely to leave immediately.
3. When they stay, they will spend money on F&B.


On a side note, the public agencies like Active SG and Health Promotion Board should take a leaf from Niantic. There is no need to organise activities or give vouchers to encourage people to move around and live an active lifestyle.


Psst - you are more likely to find a rare monster outdoor than indoor. So please go out.

Sunday, 17 July 2016

Investment Opportunities in Jurong Lake District

The Jurong Lake District (JLD) got a fresh impetus from the Government this week as a choice investment location. The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) called a tender to develop a Master Plan for JLD. The developer and marketing agents for Lake Grande (slated to launch in July) surely will be cheering this news.

But the question to be answered (agents for Lake Grande will not be telling you) is "Are there other investment options better than Lake Grande".

For comparison purposes, we shall look at developments near to Lakeside and Chinese Garden MRT stations which are not more than 10 years old.

Let's take a look at where Lake Grande is located. Just beside Lake Grande is The Lakeshore, a 848-unit development completed in 2007. Further West lies The Lakefront Residences, a 629-unit development completed in 2014; Caspian, a 712-unit development completed in 2013; and Lakeholmz, a 369-unit development completed in 2005. There is no development which fits the 10 years criteria around Chinese Garden MRT.





Below is the unit size and estimated price for Lake Grande. On a per sq ft basis, it is between $1,300 and $1,400 psf.


Type        
Size (sq ft)
Price (from)
1 bedroom
409 to 517
$580k
2 bedroom
614 to 861
$810k
3 bedroom
904 to 980
$1.18m
4 bedroom
1,152 to 1,173
$1.5m
5 bedroom
1,302
$1.69m

Source: Marketing agents

Is this price reasonable? What are the recent transacted prices in the area? The table below is organised in order of the "newness" of the development - uncompleted first, followed by most recent completion and so on.

Transacted Prices of Residential Units near Lake Grande (January to July 2016)


Lakeville
The Lakefront Residences
Caspian
The Lakeshore
Lakeholmz
Price (psf)
$1,133 to $1,397
$1,265 to $1,363
$949 to $1,119
$961 to $1,068
$715 to $1,103
Unit Size
936 to 1,324
710 to 1,012
872 to 1,593
861 to 1,270
1,249 to 1,706

Note that there are fewer than 10 transactions for all developments except for Lakeville
Source: URA

It appears that Lake Grande is priced higher than its next door development, Lakeville, both which are from the same developer. A "premium" for newness?

The Lakeshore which is beside Lake Grande, is almost ten years old but priced by around 25% cheaper than Lake Grande. Certain units in blk 29 and 31 have an unblocked view of Jurong Lake. Also current asking prices are very close to transacted prices which means these are serious sellers.

The Lakefront Residences is priced very close to Lake Grande. I will not recommend unless the unit comes with a committed tenancy. Current asking rent for The Lakefront Residences is around $3,000 to $3,500 per month for a 2 bedroom unit.

If you do not mind buying a resale condominium unit, I dare say there are good buys out there. Just keep an open mind, do some research and not rely fully on what the agent says.